Grading the New York Yankees Offseason and Projecting Their 2026 Season

The New York Yankees have received considerable amounts of criticism from Yankees fans and baseball fans alike for their inactive offseason. Brian Cashman and the Yankees seemed more concerned with bringing back players from last season, rather than adding new players and improving their roster. Although roster improvements are always expected from the New York Yankees, especially after missing out on a World Series, was this strategy from Cashman as bad as his critics have suggested? We’ll answer that question, grade the offseason, and project the opening day starting lineup, pitching rotation and the season wins-loss record. 

Did Brian Cashman Flub the Offseason?

The Yankees finished last season tied for the most wins (94) in the American League and a few Devin Williams blown saves away from having the best record in baseball heading into the postseason. That Yankees team also missed an entire season of Gerrit Cole and only got a few starts out of Cam Schlittler, who became a star the moment he stepped onto the mound. Getting Cole back in May and a full season of Cam Schlittler should only increase the Yankees’ odds of finishing the season with a better record than last year. 

Yankees fans, myself included, are always looking for the splash name in free agency, but that doesn’t mean Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham are slouches. Bellinger, in his first year in pinstripes, slashed .272/.334/.480 with 29 home runs, 98 RBI, and 5.1 WAR. Grisham was just as dominant with the bat in his hands as he slashed .235/.348/.464 with 34 home runs, 87 RBI, and 3.5 WAR. The Yankees outfield trio of Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham and Cody Bellinger posted the highest WAR (18.7) of any team in the MLB; 4.1 ahead of the second place Chicago Cubs (14.6). 

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So the question shouldn’t be was this a bad strategy deployed by Cashman, it should be who in their right mind wouldn’t bring back this dynamic trio?

Grading the Offseason

The Yankees had a successful offseason bringing back key players like Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham and Paul Goldschmidt, while adding a backend starter to the rotation in Ryan Weathers from the Miami Marlins. Although they brought back their entire starting lineup from last season, losing Devin Williams and Luke Weaver to the Mets without bringing in any other bullpen arms, was a bad move from the Yankees front office. They also didn’t make the “big splash” Yankees fans were hoping for by acquiring a name like Bo Bichette, Kyle Tucker, Freddy Peralta, or Framber Valdez. 

The Yankees certainly did not get worse than last season, especially when considering the impact Gerrit Cole will have on this year’s team, but they also did not get much better. With that in mind, I’d give the Yankees offseason a B-. 

Projected Starting Lineup

1. Trent Grisham, CF

2. Ben Rice, 1B

3. Aaron Judge, RF

4. Cody Bellinger, LF

5. Giancarlo Stanton, DH

6. Jazz Chisolm, 2B

7. Austin Wells, C

8. Jose Caballero, SS

9. Ryan McMahon, 3B

With Anthony Volpe starting the season on the Injured List, Jose Caballero will take his spot at shortstop to start the season. Don't be surprised if Aaron Boone gives Volpe the starting job once he’s fully healthy. 

Projected Starting Rotation

1. Max Fried, SP

2. Cam Schlittler, SP

3. Luis Gil, SP

4. Ryan Weathers, SP

5. Will Warren, SP

Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon and Clarke Schmidt will all start the season on the Injured List, which allows Warren, Weathers and Gil to fight for a spot in the rotation once they return from injury. With their surplus at starting pitching, the Yankees could move to a six-man rotation when those three come back to ensure they don’t reinjure themselves. 

Projected Wins-Loss Record

Using a regression model, we identified five key factors that best predict a team’s success throughout the season. Those factors were OPS, PA (plate appearances), ERA, WHIP, and WAR. After projecting how the team will perform in these key stats, we predict the New York Yankees will finish with a 90-72 record this season.