NCAA Tournament Cinderella’s: Eight Teams That Can Make an Unexpected Run in March
- Luke O'Reilly
- 12 hours ago
- 5 min read
March Madness gets its name from the Cinderella teams that have made unexpected runs, like 2006 George Mason, 2011 VCU, 2018 Loyola Chicago, 2022 Saint Peter’s, and 2024 NC State. Almost every tournament, multiple double-digit seeded teams will knock out a team that had elite eight or final four aspirations. While not all the teams on this list are seeded in the double digits, it would still be a surprise to see them make a run to Indianapolis. Just as we did in our last article, “Who Can Win the NCAA Tournament: The Eight Teams With the Best Chance to Win it All,” we found that true shooting, offensive rebound percentage, turnover percentage, opponent turnover percentage, and opponent true shooting were the five most important factors for teams that made the elite eight since 2010. We then calculated the average of those five indicators for teams that reached the elite eight. The following eight teams, which can make a run in the NCAA Tournament, were better than the average in three of those five indicators.
Saint Mary’s (7 Seed)
Key Wins: No. 12 Gonzaga, Santa Clara, Virginia Tech, Northern Iowa
Key Losses: Boise State, Santa Clara (2x), No. 16 Vanderbilt, No. 12 Gonzaga
For the fifth straight year, Randy Bennett’s Gaels are dancing in the NCAA Tournament. Saint Mary’s has a very similar prototype to 2018 Loyola Chicago, which made its run to the Final Four for the first time since 1963. The Gaels have one of the best defenses in the country, finishing seventh in points allowed per game (64.6) and 18th in defensive rating (97.1). The reason Saint Mary’s is only a 7 seed in this year’s tournament is its lack of offensive firepower, finishing 115th in points per game (78.2). Randy Bennett and the Gaels are looking for their first trip to the second weekend since 2010, and this might just be the year to do it.
TCU (9 seed)
Key Wins: No. 4 Florida, No. 6 Iowa State, No. 19 Wisconsin, No. 20 Texas Tech
Key Losses: New Orleans, Notre Dame, Utah, Colorado
The Horned Frogs were one of the most confusing teams in college basketball this season, with wins over some of the best teams in the country, but losses to some of the worst. TCU hasn’t been strong on the offensive side of the ball this season, finishing 141st in offensive rating (111.1). Jamie Dixon’s squad found its way to the tournament by crashing the offensive glass, finishing 57th in the country in offensive rebounds per game (12.4), while forcing its opponents to turn the ball over almost 14 times per game (35th in the country). The only question surrounding TCU now is, will their chaotic play, which has seen them defeat four ranked opponents, help them find a way into the Sweet 16?
Utah State (9 seed)
Key Wins: VCU, San Diego State (2x), New Mexico (2x), Grand Canyon
Key Losses: UNLV (2x), Nevada, Grand Canyon, San Diego State
The Aggies have now reached their fourth straight NCAA Tournament with three different head coaches (Ryan Odom, Danny Sprinkle, Jerrod Calhoun). Utah State has been able to maintain its high level of play despite coaching instability, thanks to its offensive prowess. Jerrod Calhoun’s squad finished 20th in offensive rating (120) and 46th in points scored per game (82.5). Utah State hasn’t made it to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament since 1970, but if there was ever a time for the Aggies, it would be with MJ Collins (17.6 PPG) and Mason Falslev (16.1 PPG) leading the charge.
Texas A&M (10 seed)
Key Wins: Kentucky, Georgia, Oklahoma (2x), Texas
Key Losses: Oklahoma State, Texas, SMU, UCF
The second “Aggies” team on this list is led by first-year head coach Bucky McMillan, after Buzz Williams led Texas A&M to three straight tournament appearances before jumping ship to Maryland. McMillan’s squad has been dreadful defensively this season, finishing 321st in points allowed per game (79.6), countering that with scoring almost 88 points per game (ninth in the country). The Aggies don’t have a signature win over a top-25 team this season, but they have wins over three tournament teams. If Texas A&M can find a way to improve its defense against the elite programs, it can make its first Sweet 16 since 2018.
Santa Clara (10 seed)
Key Wins: No. 22 Saint Mary’s (2x), McNeese State, Xavier, Oregon State
Key Losses: Loyola Chicago, Arizona State, New Mexico, Saint Louis
The Broncos have reached their first NCAA Tournament since 1996, when a future 2x NBA MVP and Hall of Famer, Steve Nash, led the way for Santa Clara. Herb Sendek’s squad has been one of the country’s best offenses, averaging almost 83 points scored per game (38th in the country) while finishing 28th in offensive rating (118.9). Santa Clara lives and dies by the three, taking the 22nd most three point attempts per game in the country (29.2) and making roughly 10 (29th in the country). If the Broncos get hot from behind the three-point line they can most certainly win their first round matchup against the Kentucky Wildcats, and make it interesting against the winner of Iowa State/Tennessee State with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line.
South Florida (11 seed)
Key Wins: Utah State, Wichita State (2x), Tulsa, College of Charleston
Key Losses: George Washington, Temple, UAB, Colorado State
The Bulls have reached their first NCAA Tournament since 2012, when they were still in the Big East Conference. First-year head coach Bryan Hodgson has changed everything in South Florida, running a fast-paced, offense-first style of play, which has seen five Bulls in double figures for points this season. South Florida finished with the eighth best offense in the country in terms of points scored per game (87.7), while landing 44th in offensive rating (117.7). Although the Bulls give up a lot of points due to their fast pace, which gives opponents more touches, they finished 54th in defensive rating (101.3). Hodgson’s squad is one of the most dangerous teams in this tournament and are primed for a Cinderella-esque story.
High Point (12 seed)
Key Wins: Furman, Winthrop (2x), Radford (2x), UNC Asheville (3x)
Key Losses: Southern Illinois, Winthrop, Appalachian State, UAB
The Panthers have not skipped a beat since Alan Huss left to become the head coach-in-waiting at Creighton, reaching their second straight appearance in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history. First-year head coach Flynn Clayman has High Point running one of the best offenses in the country, finishing third in offensive rating (124.5) and points scored per game (90). Their high-powered offense is also paired with elite defense, finishing 18th in defensive rating (97.2). The only knock on High Point’s resume is the lack of talent they played this season, finishing 321st in strength of schedule.
McNeese State (12 seed)
Key Wins: Stephen F. Austin (2x), Rhode Island, Murray State, UTRGV (2x)
Key Losses: UIW, UTRGV, Stephen F. Austin, Santa Clara
The Cowboys have now reached their third-straight NCAA Tournament under two different head coaches. In his first year with the program, head coach Bill Armstrong has been adamant about his team playing good, physical defense. McNeese has done just that, finishing 21st in defensive rating (97.7) and 23rd in points allowed per game (66.5). Although Armstrong has preached defensive quality, the Cowboys offense has still been very strong this season. The Southland Conference champions finished 45th in offensive rating (117.6), with their leading scorer, Larry Johnson, averaging 17.5 points per game. McNeese already made history last season, winning their first ever tournament game over Clemson, but now is the time for the Cowboys to make the second weekend for the first time in program history.