Who Can Win the NCAA Tournament: The Eight Teams With the Best Chance to Win it All
- Luke O'Reilly
- Mar 12
- 6 min read
Conference tournament season is upon us, and the NCAA Tournament is just around the corner. So, let’s take a look at the eight programs that can cut down the nets at the end of the season. You might be wondering how we were able to narrow 68 teams down to just eight who can win it all, so here’s the complicated statistics formula we used, broken down as simply as possible. First, we used a regression model to find that true shooting, offensive rebound percentage, turnover percentage, opponent turnover percentage, and opponent true shooting were the five most important indicators of wins for teams that made the elite eight since 2010. Then we calculated the average of those five indicators for teams that reached the elite eight. The following eight teams, which we believe can win the National Championship, were better than the average elite eight team across four of the five indicators.
Duke Blue Devils
Key Wins: No. 3 Michigan, No. 4 Florida, No. 8 Michigan State, No. 10 Virginia
Key Losses: No. 19 North Carolina, No. 16 Texas Tech
The Duke Blue Devils are arguably the favorites to win the title, and will most likely be the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament when the bracket comes out on Selection Sunday. Duke is seventh in the country in offensive rating and first in defensive rating out of 365 teams across the country. Led by freshman sensation and presumptive National Player of the Year, Cameron Boozer, there is no shortage of star power on Jon Scheyer’s team. Isaiah Evans, averaging 14.5 points per game, and Patrick Ngongba, averaging 10.7 points per game, are the perfect surroundings for Boozer, who averages 22.7 points per game. The Blue Devils are clearly not unbeatable with their losses to North Carolina and Texas Tech, but they will probably be the toughest team to knock out come tournament time.
Iowa State Cyclones
Key Wins: No. 5 Houston, No. 13 St. John’s, No. 14 Kansas, No. 18 Purdue
Key Losses: BYU, Cincinnati, TCU, No. 16 Texas Tech
Iowa State is a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament as of right now, but winning the Big 12 Tournament would bump them up a seed line. The Cyclones have some big wins over teams considered Final Four contenders, but they also lost to three unranked opponents, one of which will not be in the NCAA Tournament. Under TJ Otzelberger, Iowa State has always been a strong defensive team, and this season was no different, as the Cyclones finished in the top 10 in defensive rating. Iowa State has three elite scorers in Milan Momcilovic, who shoots 50% from behind the three-point line, Joshua Jefferson, averaging 16.6 points per game, and Tamin Lipsey, averaging 13.3 points per game. The Cyclones have shown they can beat anyone this season, but can they finally get over the hump and make their first Final Four appearance since 1944?
Michigan Wolverines
Key Wins: No. 8 Michigan State (2x), No. 9 Illinois, No. 11 Nebraska, No. 12 Gonzaga
Key Losses: No. 23 Wisconsin, No. 1 Duke
The Michigan Wolverines are a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and will remain there no matter what happens in the Big Ten Tournament. Dusty May’s team has some of the best wins in the country, with many of those coming in blowout fashion. The Wolverines are top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating, while finishing ninth in points scored per game. Michigan is led by UAB transfer Yaxel Lendeborg, who averages 14.7 points per game. The 6’9 senior is surrounded by tremendous talent, as Morez Johnson Jr., shooting 41.7% from behind the arc, and Aday Mara, averaging 2.6 blocks per game, have the Wolverines as one of the favorites to win the NCAA Tournament. Michigan is looking for its second National Championship and first since 1989.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Key Wins: No. 11 Nebraska, No. 16 Texas Tech, No. 18 Purdue, No. 25 Tennessee
Key Losses: UCLA, No. 23 Wisconsin, No. 15 Alabama, No. 11 Nebraska
The Illinois Fighting Illini head into the Big Ten Tournament as a projected 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and as long as they avoid a bad loss, they should stay on that seed line. Illinois is an interesting team: they have the best offensive rating in the country, but are just 88th in defensive rating. It’s not surprising that Illinois has the best offense in the country, as they have five players in double figures in points per game. Leading the way for the Fighting Illini is freshman guard Keaton Wagler, averaging 17.9 points per game, with Andrej Stojakovic and David Mirkovic averaging around 13 points per game. Illinois clearly has the offensive capability to make a run in the NCAA Tournament, but the only question that remains is, will its defense hold up its end of the bargain?
Arizona Wildcats
Key Wins: No. 4 Florida, No. 5 Houston, No. 6 UConn, No. 7 Iowa State
Key Losses: No. 16 Texas Tech, No. 14 Kansas
The Arizona Wildcats have arguably the best resume in college basketball this season and will undoubtedly be a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Arizona has one of the country’s best defenses, as they are top 5 in defensive rating, which is uncommon for a team with three starters who are freshmen. Brayden Burries and Koa Peat are two of those freshmen who have taken the Big 12 by storm. Burries averages 16 points per game, while Peat averages 13.8, along with 54.8% shooting from the field. Not only does Arizona have two of the best freshmen in the game, but it also has the Big 12 player of the year in Jaden Bradley, who averaged 13.4 points per game this season. When it comes to questioning whether Arizona can win its first National Championship since 1997, there’s no questioning the talent that Tommy Lloyd has put together in Tucson.
UConn Huskies
Key Wins: No. 4 Florida, No. 9 Illinois, No. 13 St. John’s, No. 14 Kansas
Key Losses: Marquette, Creighton, No. 13 St. John’s, No. 2 Arizona
The UConn Huskies have one of the best non-conference resumes in the country and were poised to be a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but two bad losses in the Big East have them as a 2 seed. UConn is not as strong on either side of the ball as some of the other programs on this list, but Dan Hurley is the only coach on this list who has won a National Championship, and he has two. The Huskies have played in a Big East conference that has had one of its worst seasons since realignment, but that shouldn’t take away from the success they have had this season. UConn is led by Solo Ball, who averages 13.9 points per game, Tarris Reed, who is a force in the paint, collecting 2.1 blocks per game, and the two-time National Champion Alex Karaban, who is shooting 40% from behind the three-point line. Although he may act like a petulant child on the sidelines, Dan Hurley has this UConn squad poised for a run at their third championship in four seasons.
Virginia Cavaliers
Key Wins: No. 24 Louisville, Miami (FL), Texas, Ohio State
Key Losses: Butler, Virginia Tech, No. 19 North Carolina, No. 1 Duke
The Virginia Cavaliers were the surprise team on this list after finishing 15-17 last season in their first season without legendary head coach Tony Bennett. But a new era has started in Charlottesville, as Ryan Odom has Virginia ranked in the top 46 in the country in both offensive and defensive ratings. The Cavaliers are another program on this list who are led by a standout freshman, Thijs De Ridder. The 6’9 forward from Brasschaat, Belgium, is averaging 15.9 points per game, while shooting 51.3% from the field. Virginia may not be the first program you think of when you’re filling out your bracket in just a few days' time, due to their bad losses against Butler and Virginia Tech, but the Cavaliers can shock the world and win their second National Championship in program history.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Key Wins: No. 8 Michigan State, No. 9 Illinois, No. 23 Wisconsin, Iowa
Key Losses: UCLA, Iowa, No. 18 Purdue, No. 9 Illinois
The Nebraska Cornhuskers, a team that has never won a single NCAA Tournament game in program history, are a projected 3 seed as of now. Nebraska is the weakest offensive team on this list (81st in offensive rating), but it has been one of the best defenses in the nation, finishing 18th in points allowed per game and defensive rating. Pryce Sandfort has been the difference maker for Nebraska this season, averaging 17.9 points per game and shooting 40.1% from behind the arc. It might seem crazy to think that a program that has never won an NCAA Tournament game can win six in a row, but Fred Hoiberg’s team is drastically different from Nebraska teams of the past. After witnessing a miracle in college football with the Indiana Hoosiers winning the National Championship, can the Nebraska Cornhuskers find that same magic in college basketball?
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