Who Should Be the Giants' Next Head Coach?

The New York Giants are once again searching for a new head coach after firing Brian Daboll mid-way through the season. Although Tom Coughlin isn’t walking into the Giants' practice facility anytime soon, there are strong candidates out there who can turn Big Blue back into the powerhouse it’s supposed to be. Here’s an in-depth analysis of my top five candidates for the Giants job and why I think they can succeed in New York. 

1. Mike Tomlin

Yes, you read that right. After 19 seasons in Pittsburgh, Mike Tomlin stepped down as the Steelers' coach on Tuesday afternoon. Tomlin becomes the obvious choice for the Giants, considering his head coaching experience and success, leading Pittsburgh to their sixth Super Bowl championship and 19 straight seasons above .500. To put into context how unbelievable that streak is, the last time the New York Giants even had back-to-back winning seasons was 2011 (the year they won the Super Bowl) and 2012. 

The Giants would have to acquire Tomlin via trade as the Steelers still have the rights to his contract, but whatever price they have to pay is worth it. Take the Denver Broncos, for example. They traded away a first-round and second-round pick to acquire Sean Payton in 2023, and after making the playoffs with 10 wins last year, they are now the No. 1 seed in the AFC, tied for the best record in the NFL. Coaching matters, so if that means the Giants have to give up a few picks to acquire one of the best coaches of this generation, then so be it. 

The mark of good coaching can be determined in so many ways, whether it’s wins and losses, takeaways-giveaways ratio, point differential, yards differential, etc. Throughout his career, Tomlin’s teams have consistently ranked in the top 10 of the NFL in all of those categories. The Steelers under Tomlin averaged 12th in the NFL in takeaways-giveaways ratio and point differential, while averaging 11th in yards differential. Although these numbers don’t come screaming off the page, consistently being around the top 10 in these categories for nearly two decades is exactly what the New York Giants need at head coach.   

2. Mike McCarthy

After spending this past season as a free agent, Mike McCarthy is primed for a comeback with nine teams searching for a new head coach. The Giants should be one of those teams looking at Mike McCarthy. The 62-year-old Pittsburgh native spent 13 seasons in Green Bay and five seasons in Dallas, compiling a 174-112-2 record over those 18 years and winning the 2010 Super Bowl. 

Although McCarthy has had some vocal critics over the past few years, he has only had five seasons with a record under .500. By comparison, the Giants have been sub .500 five times in the past six seasons under Brian Daboll and Joe Judge. McCarthy has also reached the playoffs 12 times in his 18-year career, while the Giants have made the playoffs just four times during that timespan. 

Mike McCarthy’s teams, much like the Steelers, have been towards the top of the NFL in takeaways-giveaways ratio, yards differential, and point differential. Between his time with Green Bay and Dallas, McCarthy ranked an average of 10th in takeaways-giveaways ratio, 11th in point differential, and 12th in yards differential. Although arguably having the most talented quarterback to ever live, Aaron Rodgers, definitely helped McCarthy in all of these statistics, hovering around the top 10 is still very impressive over an 18-year career. 

3. John Harbaugh

Once again, another shocking decision came out of the AFC North, with John Harbaugh getting fired by the Baltimore Ravens after 18 seasons with the team. Harbaugh immediately went to the top of almost every team’s list that is looking for a new head coach. The 63-year-old Ohio native is a prime candidate for the Giants' job as he is one of two (Mike McCarthy) free agent head coaches with a Super Bowl ring. 

Harbaugh compiled a 180-113 career record as Head Coach of the Ravens and a 13-11 playoff record, while being over .500 in 13 of those 18 seasons. By comparison, the Giants have been over .500 just six times in the last 18 years, with only two of those coming since Tom Coughlin left New York in 2015. There is no doubt that hiring a coach of Harbaugh’s pedigree is a cut above every hire they’ve made since 2016. 

The Ravens under Harbaugh, much like the Steelers with Tomlin, have ranked near the top of the NFL in almost every stat that leads to wins. Harbaugh’s teams have ranked an average of 12th in takeaways-giveaways ratio, ninth in point differential, and 10th in yards differential. The Ravens also have the fourth-most total wins in the NFL since Harbaugh took over as coach in 2008, behind New England, Pittsburgh, and Green Bay. 

The downside to a John Harbaugh hire is that he’s the only one on this list who has never called plays at the NFL level on either side of the ball. But even with that downside, the upsides to John Harbaugh far outweigh his inability to call plays. 

4. Kevin Stefanski

The last two years have not been kind to Kevin Stefanski and the Cleveland Browns, which led to the 43-year-old's firing, but there are positives to his six years in Cleveland. The two-time NFL Coach of the Year had just two winning seasons with the Browns, but in those seasons, his offense ranked 14th and 10th in points scored, while being third and 14th in rushing offense. Although he had two solid seasons, many critics of Stefanski would point to his four losing seasons as reasons to believe that he’s not good enough to be a head coach at this level. But is it really his fault? 

In his first playoff appearance with Cleveland, Stefanski had Baker Mayfield as his quarterback, who had one of the best seasons of his career in 2020. Since then, Stefanski has had numerous starters come through a revolving door, such as Jacoby Brissett, Joe Flacco, Jameis Winston, Dillon Gabriel, and Shedeur Sanders. Dealing with that quarterback play, I think Stefanski deserves another shot at being an NFL head coach, especially considering his success with Mayfield and Flacco for a season apiece. 

5. Brian Flores

This hire would transform the Giants' defense and turn them into the defensive powerhouse they’re supposed to be. After spending three seasons in Miami as their HC, Flores was shockingly fired in 2021 after finishing the season 9-8. Since being fired from Miami, Flores has been with the Vikings the past three seasons as the team’s defensive coordinator.

Flores turned Minnesota’s defense from middle of the pack into one of the league’s best, helping the Vikings stay afloat without their starting quarterback for most of the season. 

Although Flores never made the playoffs as Head Coach of the Dolphins, he did have back-to-back winning seasons before getting fired, which, as I mentioned before, is something the New York Giants have failed to do since 2011 and 2012. During his time with Minnesota and Miami, Flores’ defenses ranked in the top seven in points allowed three times, while also finishing top three in takeaways-giveaways ratio twice. 

Brian Flores may not be the top option for Giants’ fans, but his defensive work in Miami and Minnesota cannot be understated. If the Giants were to hire Flores, with their talented defense, he could easily lead them to a top-10 finish in most defensive categories. 

The New York Giants have a huge decision on their hands, with the fate of their general manager and potential franchise quarterback on the line. Big Blue cannot afford to make another mistake when it comes to hiring their next head coach. There are five quality candidates out there that can bring the Giants back to the promised land, but the three that have already reached the mountain top (Tomlin, McCarthy, Harbaugh) are my favorites to take the job. Those three have consistently finished in the top 10 in takeaways-giveaways ratio, yards differential, and point differential, which I believe are three of the most important factors when it comes to winning games.

Here are three graphs that show their proficiency in these key areas:

As you can see, Tomlin, Harbaugh, and McCarthy all usually rank in the top 10 in yard differential, point differential, and takeaways-giveaways ratio, unlike Stefanski and Flores. If the Giants have the opportunity to hire either one of these Super Bowl winners, they should do whatever it takes.