Jets Pre-Season Projections: Can They End the Playoff Drought?
The New York Jets come into the 2026 season with a lot more promise than last year’s 3-14 debacle. New York selected EDGE David Bailey, TE Kenyon Sadiq, and WR Omar Cooper Jr in the first round of the NFL Draft, traded for QB Geno Smith and S Minkah Fitzpatrick, while adding G Dylan Parham, LB Demario Davis and EDGE Joseph Ossai through free agency. Although this is most likely not a playoff team, the Jets have added talent to a roster that desperately needed it.
What To Expect From the Jets This Season
The last time the New York Jets played in a playoff game was January 23, 2011. That was 5,704 days ago. There are not many fan bases in North American sports that have had it worse than Jets fans over the past 15 years, but is there any way that misery comes to an end this season? The easy answer is no. But the optimistic answer is that this team could play some meaningful games in November and December.
The Jets defense, which was unable to record an interception last season, is much improved with the additions of Bailey, Davis and Fitzpatrick as previously mentioned. These additions are not just role players; they are difference-makers who can turn around a flailing defense in one offseason. Head Coach Aaron Glenn taking over playcalling duties on the defensive side of the ball is also a reason for optimism amongst Jets fans. If everything goes right for the Jets, this could be an average to above-average NFL defense, which is a major step up from arguably the worst.
There is no doubt that the Jets have a surplus of talent on the offensive side of the ball. Stars like Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson have shown what they can do when healthy, and the addition of Sadiq and Cooper Jr gives Geno Smith more than enough weapons to be successful. The only question mark of this Jets offense is the most important part of a team, the quarterback. Smith showed promise in his tenure with the Seahawks, combining for more than 12,000 passing yards and 71 touchdowns in three seasons as a starter. However, last season with the Las Vegas Raiders was a struggle, totaling only 19 touchdowns to 17 interceptions. If the West Virginia graduate can find the form he had in Seattle, this Jets offense could be fun to watch this season. But if he plays anything like he did with Vegas, New York’s rookie QB Cade Klubnik could be the starter by Week 5. In my opinion, the Jets' season rides on the shoulders of Geno Smith.
Projected Win-Loss Record
Using a regression model, we found that passing yards and touchdowns, rushing yards and touchdowns, field goals made, penalty yards against, and sack yards lost on offense were the most important factors to winning games. On defense, passes defended, sack yards, QB hits/knockdowns, and interceptions were the most important components. After projecting how the team will perform in these key areas, we predict the New York Jets will finish with a 6-11 record this season.
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